Enhanced Risk

The 2020 chasing season began with a lot of promise. The first in a sequence of upper level troughs was beginning to eject into the Central United States during this time, and it appeared likely that there would be several days of chasing ahead. Supercells and tornadoes appeared a near certainty during the pattern that was being advertised on medium range guidance.

Setting out on the morning of May 13th, expectations were for an EML day – mid level lapse rates were impressive and scattered supercells were likely. Low level moisture and shear was less than perfect, and so the tornado potential was more uncertain and expected to depend on boundaries or mesoscale convective elements.

As the event unfolded, it became increasingly clear that the tornado potential would not only be uncertain – it would be limited to none. Low level moisture and shear was significantly lacking and storm mode and motions would not be conducive to the development of tornadoes. While the day appeared lost at one point, we did eventually see supercells develop later in the afternoon and early evening hours in parts of Southwestern Oklahoma.

These scattered (and slightly elevated) supercells developed during golden hour, presenting a beautiful and photogenic scene. These supercells eventually went on to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in parts of Southwest Oklahoma and parts of Northern Texas. While no tornadoes occurred on this day, these storms were absolutely gorgeous. The mid level rotation visible in these storms to the naked eye was spectacular.