5/14/20 | Seiling, OK

Slight Risk

Would you believe me if I told you that my favorite chase day of 2020 didn’t feature a tornado? Believe it, because it was this day, May 14th, 2020, in Seiling Oklahoma. Early in the morning, I spoke with a good friend of mine – Michael Gavan (@ScienceOutThere) and decided to head from Northern Texas to Northwestern Oklahoma.

The synoptic set up on this day featured a very marginal environment for supercells. There was very weak synoptic forcing and limited support for low level mesocyclones. However, there were a few things that caught my attention. First, there was a remnant boundary from the prior days convection in Northern Oklahoma. Second, subtle mid level lift was forecast to arrive by the late afternoon and early evening.

Short term forecast models flipped back and forth with how the mesoscale situation would evolve. Early on, the HRRR was mixing out the boundary that was located in Northwest Oklahoma. But as the day went on, it became clear that the boundary would remain there, and would enhance the potential for one or maybe two supercells.

Bulk and effective shear was adequate, with hodographs supportive of mid level mesocyclones. With an impressive elevated mixed layer in place and late-arriving lift, this day smelled like a beautiful photograph in the making to me. And so we posted up at our target and played the waiting game (I grabbed a delicious brisket sandwich from a food truck near Pampa, TX on the way).

In the early evening, just as the sun was setting in to golden hour, convection rapidly developed along the boundary. We were in perfect position. The storm barely moved for a three hour period, drifting southeast by 20 to 30 miles at most. The structure on the storm itself was gorgeous, with visible mid level rotation and a gorgeous sun-lit updraft.

After sunset, the storm put on an incredible lightning show. The low level jet ramped up after dark, just enough to create a brief but noticeable lowering and RFD wrap. But it didn’t appear that a tornado ever touched down. Eventually, the storm began to weaken as the surface and mid level capping began to re-strengthen.

This was one of the most photogenic supercells I’ve ever seen, and my favorite day of the chase season. Good views, good company, and an accurate forecast. It doesn’t get better than that.