2020: A year to be grateful

2020 was one of the worst storm chasing years of all-time. Tornado numbers were near record lows, lightning was down across almost the entire Central United States, and severe weather related warnings were issued less frequently than any point in the past decade.

Yet somehow, at the end of a long storm chasing season, I found myself satisfied and grateful for the time spent in the Great Plains from April through June. Perhaps it was the ongoing global pandemic, perhaps it was a sprinkle of newfound hope and inspiration, or perhaps it was simply a changed and evolved mindset. In reality, it may have been all of those things. At the end of the year, despite the lack of tornadoes and footage, 2020 turned out to be pretty damn good.

January 2020

My chasing year began just three weeks into 2020. I decided to take the trip to Texas for a highly anomalous and unusual setup in Central Texas during mid-January. SPC issued an Enhanced Risk with the potential for supercells and tornadoes. As it turns out, the event was a mess – oscillating storm modes, late initiation, and very little potential for tornadoes. I decided to drive eastward later that day, through Louisiana and into Mississippi. I met up with a few friends in Jackson and chased the following day. A squall line with ridiculous shear produced a few embedded tornadoes, one of which we caught through the rain in Western Georgia. All in all it was a muddy, messy, grungy chase – fairly typical for Dixie in winter.

March 2020

It would not be until March that I was able to return to the Midwest. Ironically enough, it was Texas that came calling again ons March 18th. A unique atmospheric setup led to the potential for supercells, and short term model guidance was convinced that several would develop with the potential for tornadoes. SPC issued a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes that afternoon.

Similar to the January event, this day never really got off the ground. Storm mode was again a concern, and cloud cover led to more stable low levels than were initially modeled. I was able to catch a supercell and wall cloud, but no tornadoes. In fact, tornadoes were very hard to come by on this day at all. The event quickly became a mess with a squall line developing in the late afternoon and continuing into the evening.

April 2020

The weather pattern would remain quiet until the latter part of April 2020. I decided to chase a synoptically anomalous event in Dixie with ample moisture and a somewhat impressive elevated mixed layer. This event followed directly in the footsteps of the prior few – a grungy mess with low visibility and very few opportunities to actually observe tornadoes. The 2020 season was not off to a great start.

May 2020

On May 12th, 2020, I returned to the Plains with high hopes for the weeks that lie ahead. Medium and long range forecast model and analog guidance looked excellent for severe weather chances in the Central United States. This year would be different, that much was clear from the start. For one, I would be chasing alone and not interacting with others very often. The explosion of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country meant that social distancing and safety protocols were important for my health and the health of others. Traveling was complicated and convoluted. Still, I planned to carry on.

The pattern offered up an active start almost right out of the gate. I was able to chase supercells on May 13th and 14th in Oklahoma, May 16th in New Mexico, May 19th in Montana, May 20th in Colorado and May 21st in Kansas. There was, however, one common theme developing: No tornadoes. Each setup seemed eager to produce photogenic storms, but struggled with at least one aspect just enough to mitigate tornado potential – often times a lack of low level shear or moisture.

The two day stretch from May 20th through May 21st presents a particular highlight from me. On May 20th, we chased supercells into the mid-evening in Colorado’s Pawnee National Grasslands. The sunset backlit and incredible supercell which was producing some of the most intense lightning I had ever seen. On May 21st, we chased a supercell off a dry line in Kansas. The storm ended up producing an incredible visual structure near Sublette, KS later that evening. This was a classic Plains chase day – minus the tornadoes (again).

It wasn’t until May 22nd, that I was able to observe my first tornado of the year. I decided to make the long haul to the Red River near Burkburnett, TX for a setup that could produce high-precipitation supercells. Early in the day, I linked up with a fellow storm chaser Taylor Wright and decided to convoy together. This setup had something that the others didn’t: A remnant boundary from prior-day convection and lots of low level moisture. Lo and behold, a supercell developed by mid afternoon and we were off to the races.

This storm presented plenty of challenges, as it tracked near the Red River and in a jungly road network. Still, it did produce brief tornadoes (albeit not very photogenic) throughout its life cycle. Taylor did a great job capturing the storm on video here. As the storm strengthened, the structure became more and more impressive. We tracked the complex into the evening and watched the light and structure show before letting it pass us and calling it a night.

Coming off the high of a great chase, I decided to get a bit risky. May 23rd would be one of the most disappointing days of the chase season. Forecast models were locked in on a dry line event in Western Kansas – the storm chasing Mecca. Sufficient moisture, ample shear for supercell organization, excellent hodographs supporting mesocyclones. The main question was whether or not storms would form at all, as forcing was late and weak.

Storms began forming during the late afternoon, and it appeared likely that the best event of the year-to-date was about to begin. The Storm Prediction Center quickly issued a Tornado Watch. A string of supercells were visible in front of me, and they quickly began rotating. And then, disaster: as the storms pulled off the dryline, they simply fizzled out. Each individual storm would pull away from the best lift and spin itself out. The event never produced a single severe storm, let alone a tornado. We were left with nothing but a gorgeous sunset, not a cloud in the sky – almost as if the event had never happened.

Later that night, a consolation prize. My friend and I, Michael Gavan, were on the road back to Denver. I was ready to call it a trip and head home for a few days. But we received word that sprites were being observed on the northern horizon, emanating from a complex of storms in Nebraska. We decided to pull off the highway. There, on an empty dirt road in rural eastern Colorado, we observed an incredible naked-eye display of sprites. It was truly a magical moment.

And with that, May 2020’s chasing came to a close for me. I headed home – 10 straight days of chasing, many supercells, an amazing experience, but just one (not fully condensed) tornado.

June 2020

Before I could blink an eye, I was back on the road in the Plains. Another active pattern was on the way, and it was time to chase again. On June 4th, we chased beautiful supercells in South Dakota. This was my first chase in South Dakota proper – and boy was it an eye openingly beautiful experience. I linked up with another good friend of mine, Spencer Dant, and we chased supercells through the rolling hills of South Dakota for several hours. By the end of the day, my car was pummeled with hail just northwest of Rapid City.

After an off-day exploring the Black Hills, we headed out again on June 6th. Storms quickly went linear on this day, but we were more than happy to chase this developing derecho. This was one of the most intense storms I’ve chased. As storms rolled off the hills into better moisture, the structure of the MCS became impressive very quickly. We eventually let the derecho overtake us near Ziebach, SD and were pummeled with very strong winds which caused widespread damage in the area.

On June 7th, we headed way north into North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota for what appeared to be an excellent chance at tornadoes. As it turns out (you guessed it) there were very few tornadoes at all. The storm mode was a mess, visibility was terrible, and low level shear was again lacking and misaligned. We chased a few transient mesocyclones in the rain.

At this point, I decided to call it a season in terms of proper chasing. I spent a few days in Minneapolis and then decided to head home from there. Sometimes you have to cut your losses, and in May and June of 2020 there were many more losses than there were wins.

July 2020

The best surprise of the 2020 chasing season came during July. I happened to be in Iowa for a wedding, and decided to make a week-long trip out of it, exploring the Black Hills and Yellowstone. As fate would have it, a late season chasing event presented itself to me on July 6th. I drove into Montana near the intersection of excellent moisture and tremendous deep-layer shear. Two supercells formed and I found myself in great position to observe them.

Much to my surprise, after three months of coming up empty handed, a tremendous wall cloud developed and quickly produced a beautiful, fully condensed tornado just over the border of Wyoming and Montana – near Hulett. This was a thick cone – a beautiful, twisting tornado that tracked slowly towards me over an open field. It was truly an incredible consolation prize for a tough chasing year.

After this tornado, we stopped to watch a gorgeous sunset over the fields of Montana. Birds chirped in the distance as the sun slowly dropped towards the horizon. The rolling hills were ablaze in a golden light, unlike any I had seen before. The grasses moved slowly back and forth in the wind. For more reasons than one, this specific moment in time felt like the closing of a chapter. As I watched the sun set below the horizon, in a sort of silent acceptance with the company I was with on that empty Montana road, I felt completely at peace. It was truly beautiful in its own right – a moment I know I won’t ever forget.

It was, as it turns out, the perfect ending to the 2020 chasing season. In a year when so many people were affected by a terrible global pandemic, the lack of tornadoes was the last thing on my mind. Instead, I was happy and grateful to be there – feeling fortunate and lucky to enjoy these experiences.

2020 was a year of tremendous change for me, both professionally and personally. It offered me the chance to grow, to open my mind to new perspectives, and to make changes that I had been afraid to make before. While it will certainly be remembered as a tough year for us all, I will remember it fondly for the perspectives, experiences and growth that it presented to me.

Cheers to that.

See you in 2021!

John